Dan in Iowa 2020

Caucus night: from excitement of an actual caucus to the fog of incredible bungling of the results

The anticipation for the caucus was very high among the people I was meeting. I knew I was meeting a small sub-set of Iowa voters. I was interacting with voters who cared deeply about learning about the issues and challenging the candidates to articulate their agenda for the future. All of these retired teachers and librarians, public employees and volunteer staff members were asserting that turnout would be enormous.  Bernie said he was going to expand the number of participants in the political process to start his revolution. He would bring in new voters. He specifically said that he would increase the number of persons of color, youth, and working class voters into the political process. This dramatic expansion of the electorate would be the next step to building off  the excitement and results of the 2018 midterm elections for the Democrats. Unfortunately, for both Bernie and the Democrats, turnout was not huge or even approaching the numbers from 2008 with Obama and Clinton. The caucus was a success in terms of stimulating the candidates to improve their message and ground game. The retail politics that encourage the electorate to engage in the political process was also successful. The caucus was a failure in terms streamlining the process to encourage people to participate in the voting. The important measure of meeting the minimum of competence in “getting things done” was a failure. On the other hand, for me it was a great personal experience and another important step in my life-long learning process.

The Caucus

Caucus night started early for me. I left the house at 5:00 for a 15 minute walk to Horn Elementary, Liesl and Lauren’s (L2) neighborhood caucus site. I got there early to help with the set-up of the cafeteria, and registering people who would participate in the caucus. Within a couple of minutes of arriving at the school, L2’s neighbors showed up with all manner of food, balloons, posters, water, and campaign paraphernalia for Pete. The neighbors were seasoned veterans of the caucus process. They quickly filled me in on how the room would be organized, what the steps in the agenda would be, and how close the results would be. Next came the “technology expert” from the school district who was responsible for setting up the public address system and the computer networks needed for outside communication. He was also a veteran of the caucus at this school. He predicted 300 or so people would caucus,  in line with the totals from 2016. He also noted that Bernie had a very large group of students in 2016. The 2016 turnout was about 300, which ended in a 50/50 tie. This year he predicted a more diverse turnout of non-students and families.

The doors opened at 6:15 with a long line stretching down the hallway from the cafeteria. My job was to help the volunteers with anything they needed to keep the registration line moving. A good third of the caucusers needed to reregister because they had either moved  or changed parties.

The formal proceeding started with speeches, a letter from the President of the Iowa Democratic Party, and detailed instructions regarding the rules and timelines for the conduct of the caucus. The Democratic official used a “cowbell” to start and stop the caucus process. At this caucus site there was 305 registered voters. Viability was defined as the number of people who planned to caucus with each candidate. To be viable you needed at least 15% of the total caucus, or at least 46 supporters in your corner. Those candidates who had 15% were deemed viable and their supporters cannot change candidates for the duration of the caucus. Supporters of candidates who were not viable are then free to affiliate with another candidate who achieved viability. This second process was called realignment.

The results of the first count were: Warren=93; Sanders=74; Pete=50; Amy=46, Biden 35, Yang 5, Steyer 1. When supporters for the non-viable candidates realigned during the second process, a final vote was tallied. The final vote was Warren=97; Sanders=79; Amy=61; Pete=60; Biden 0.

Personal Observations

The biggest surprise of the evening for me was that the caucus turnout was near 2016 levels of participation, instead of the more robust 2008 turnout. Both Bernie and Warren’ campaigns knocked on L3’s door multiple times over the past three weeks. Despite that effort, the many students who live in the large apartment buildings in the neighborhood did not show up. When I shared these thoughts with one of the campaign organizers, he said that the only campaign believing in record turnout was Bernie. The other campaigns noted that Bernie brought in many new voters in 2016. This year it was clear that this was not going to happen, as soon as they observed the room. The room was packed, but not with a large group of young, first time voters.

A second surprise of the evening was that Biden ‘s group did not reach viability. I felt bad for the Biden supporters. They were 11 voters shy of  becoming viable. One of his leaders expressed disappointment that the other candidate groups would not share their surplus to help them become viable. That was the only point of dissention I could detect in the caucus.

On the flip side, I really enjoyed watching Amy’s group utilize Bennet’s two supporters to gain viability status.  The word that Amy reached viability reverberated around the cafeteria. She had started after the better organized groups like Warren and Sanders. The final vote showed Amy was the candidate that made the most progress in the reallocation process. She ended up in 3^rd place in the precinct. Pete was boosted by the second choices, but not as much as Amy.

The Aftermath

When I returned home I experienced how the caucus effects people’s lives. To participate in the caucus your need to plan on transportation, baby-sitting, and dedicating 2-3 hours of time in a purely political process. Certainly there were many Iowans engaged in the process. The reality is that few people are engaged in Iowa’s caucuses. Approximately 17-25 % of voters participate in a Presidential Caucus. These people that do participate are typically higher educated on the issues. They have also visited the town halls, and rallies of the candidates.

I personally have  benefitted from my experience visiting the candidates for President of the United States. All of the candidates are persons of high integrity, above average intelligence, and significant accomplishments. Each of the candidates also possesses major weaknesses and vulnerabilities. The path to the nomination lies in the ability to unite the progressive liberal with the left-center parts of the party.

As I complete this post on Wednesday afternoon, 86% of the vote has been reported. Bernie leads in the final vote by .6%. Pete leads Bernie in the official statistic of state delegates by  1.3% of this official statistic. The New York Times estimates that Pete has a 95% chance of winning the Iowa caucus.

The Future of the Iowa Caucus

The Iowa caucus has become a national political institution. Like all institutions, they are difficult to dislodge or terminate. The Iowa caucus is endangered first by the seeming unrepresentativeness  of the state’s electorate. The state of Iowa is whiter, older, and more rural than the Democratic constituency in the county. To survive the Iowa caucus needs to add value and earn its place on the political calendar. The human contact, the intense interest in meeting as many candidates as possible, all reinforce the positive aspects of the caucus. The unfortunate problems of making voters dedicate 2-3 hours for time on a cold night in February, and the problem of reporting the results in a timely manner could undermine the future of the caucus. Fortunately for Iowa,  the overall process worked extremely well throughout 2019 and into early February.  The actual process of retail politics, up close and personal interactions, town hall meetings, political and film stars, and the passionate advocacy of spirited  followers were all worth their weight in gold. Thus, I believe the Iowa caucus will survive the delay in reporting scandal of 2020. On the other hand, continued incompetence and failure to learn from mistakes could certainly doom the Iowa caucus going forward.

Thanks for sharing this wonderful experience with me. Vote early.

Talking politics with five women around a table in a West Branch café

On the return trip from Bettendorf to Iowa City, I stopped in West Branch, a small town about 10 miles east of Iowa City. I wanted a little lunch and chose the Reid’s Beans Café because I had eaten there several years ago when I visited the Herbert Hoover Library and Museum. I remembered the quirky owner/chef who was both personable and cooked really good food.

I arrived in West Branch just as the local Farmer’s Market was closing up. The little town is picturesque with a large park and quaint little buildings. The sun was shining on the snow in the open spaces adding to the beauty of the setting. As I walked around the town I noticed that five women who had just left the Farmer’s Market were headed straight to the Café. We all arrived at the same time. The women took a large round table toward the entrance and I chose a table for two on the street side.

Before I could sit down, one of the women asked me whether I wanted to sit with them. I of course said “Yes” and I joined them at the center of their table. As I sat watching them get settled, the waitress came by with the lunch menu. One of the women quietly said to me, “Everything is good on the menu, especially the quiche and pulled pork. The eggs and pork are from my farm”. I quickly felt comfortable and the most remarkable conversation took place with my new friends.

The characters in the café are as follows:

To my immediate left was a young woman who is an instructor at a local community college. She helps her mother bake pies and other goods for the weekly Market. She grew up in West Branch, but now lives in North Liberty, a suburb of Iowa City

Next to her was her mother, a retired nurse. She provides baked good at the Market. She has lived in West Branch for many years. She uses the proceeds from her bake sales to support a Scholarship for local high school students.

Directly across from me was a retired librarian from Iowa City. She has been part of the Market for many years. Her primary role is one of friend of the women.

Next was a young woman who is an Educational Assistant in a Special Education class at the local school. She lives in a rural area near New Liberty, a rural area east of Iowa City.

To my immediate right was a 60 ish farmer who brings all manner of fruits, vegetables, eggs, poultry and meat to the Market. She lives on a farm in Tipton, a rural area to the east of Iowa City.

I introduced myself as a retired professor of Special Education from the University of Oregon. I told them I was in Iowa City visiting my daughter, her wife and my grandson. I said my daughter was in a seven year residency in neurosurgery and would soon be leaving Iowa City. I also said my grandson was 15 months old and was born in Iowa City.

As soon as I completed my introduction, one of the women asked, “Why in the heck are you visiting Iowa in winter?”. I replied that I wanted to experience the Iowa caucus process and visit as many of the candidates as possible. This stimulated a whole raft of questions and observations from the women.

The political discourse began when the community college instructor gave a detailed presentation on the intricacies of the caucus process. She made the case that many Iowans are still considering two or three different candidates. Thus, each voter needed a strategy when they entered the caucus. She said do not go to the “uncommitted” group at the caucus. If that group has at least 15%, then you will not be able to move to another candidate after the initial vote. She said to start with Bennet or Tulsi, who certainly will not be viable. Then you can go to each of the other viable candidates and select one of your top choices. Each of the women politely listened to this strategy and then opened up about their thoughts about the caucus.

The farmer blurted out, “I don’t see how any woman could support Trump!”. One of the women said they had talked to a women who supported Trump. She said the woman could not  explain why she liked him other than to say, “I guess he is as good as anyone else”. To this comment, another of the women said, “With 400 million people in this country don’t you think they could find a better choice?”.

One of the woman said, “I’ve heard Pete and I like him. I don’t care whether he’s gay”. The group all agreed that it didn’t bother them. Then the retired nurse asked me what does your daughter’s wife do for a living? I said she was a Nurse Anesthetist. She then noted that a friend had just had a procedure at the Medical School and said the Nurse Anesthetist was fantastic. She wondered whether Lauren, my daughter in law was the nurse.

Another major question directed to the group was, “Can a woman beat Trump?”. One member said they thought that women in politics had taken four steps backward since Trump was elected over Hillary. After much discussion, the group consensus was that either Warren or Amy had the smarts and backing to beat Trump. The retired librarian asserted, “There is a lawn sign I’ve seen in Iowa City that says, “Vote for any functional adult”. This comment drew laughs and agreement from the group.

As the meal ended and the dessert menu was described, I asked the group who they were planning to caucus for on Monday. The following was their individual responses:

The community college instructor: Warren, then Amy and Pete;

The retired nurse: Warren;

The retired librarian: Amy and then undecided;

The teaching assistant: Bernie, then Warren;

The farmer: Pete, then Amy.

As we paid our checks, the retired nurse said, “Now you have experienced real Iowa hospitality. We take our job seriously to get this Presidential choice right”. I thanked them for a lovely time and told them I would share our experience with my friends and family. We said our goodbyes and I headed back to Iowa City with a really warm feeling in my heart.

Amy Klobuchar: She gets things done

Today I visited Amy Klobuchar’s Get Out the Caucus Event in Bettendorf. Amy is the final candidate I will meet “up close and personal” during my stay in Iowa. The one hour drive from Iowa City took place in dense fog. When I arrived at the venue, a full 30 minutes early, at yet another brew pub, the parking lot was full. People were streaming into the pub on foot from all directions. I took a cue from several other drivers and made a U-turn and parked in a local motel parking lot.

When I approached the venue, the line was all the way past the bicycle shop next door. I got in line and was immediately told that that the pub had reached its capacity. A staff member said they were setting up an overflow room in the bicycle shop. There was little grumbling on the part of the 100 or so people who were in line with me. As I entered the bicycle shop the proprietor said, “Just come on in and place yourself among the bicycles. We are open for business, so pull out your credit cards and don’t hesitate to buy”. A staff member from Amy’s campaign assured us that she would visit with us prior to speaking with the main crowd. People continued to fill the bicycle shop. I did not see anyone leave the venue, due to the overflow situation.

As I waited in the overflow site with 200 or so voters, I had the chance to speak with several  local Amy supporters. The demographics of the overflow crowd was a mixture of all ages and more than a few persons of color and families with young children. The people I spoke with all said they had decided to support Amy in the past three or four weeks. One 70 plus year old male told me his and his wife had recently decided on Amy because she has “come on fire in the last couple of weeks”. He further noted that she is clearly surging among his friends because she is now talking about more than just being a nice Midwestern Senator. He told me that he had seen Amy a couple of months ago and she was neither dynamic nor very interesting. He said that her debate performances over the past month had really caught their attention and now they were fully committed to caucusing for her.

Another woman in her 60’s told me she had been committed to Amy since the first of the year. She said she had gone through a “spread sheet” of all the issues, the candidate assets and liabilities and concluded that Amy had the “most positives and fewest negatives” among the final candidates. She highlighted two things that sealed the deal for her “number one she can get things done, number two she can best beat Trump among the moderate Democrats and independents who voted for him in 2016”. She also said that she had recently signed up to be one of Amy’s precinct captains. She also proudly said that she knew many Republicans who were caucusing for Amy, and they wouldn’t do it for all of the present candidates.

Another woman in her 50’s, who was toting an Amy lawn sign, said she was caucusing for Amy because she was, “bright, articulate, can win in red areas, and can work on both sides of the aisle”. When I asked her who she caucused for in 2016, she said, “we won’t talk about that”. She went on to say that “Amy has the best plan both to get the economy going and to actually get things done in Washington”.

A final person I talked to was a 20ish male. He noted that he had come to see Amy during a previous visit and only 15 people had showed up to see her. He said that there had been a bad snow storm that may have kept some of the audience down. As he waved his hand over the overflow crown of at least 220 people, he said, “This turnout is amazing. Had I known there would be so many people I would have gotten here at least an hour earlier”. I thought the same thing myself.

Amy’s Stump Speech

As luck would have it, I got to see, hear and shake Amy’s hand twice. I got to hear and see her during her good 15 minute speech to the overflow crowd. As Amy was leaving the overflow crowd she walked past me, I reached out my hand and shook it and said thank you for coming. I was pretty excited to have actually made a personal contact with her and assumed that my experience was concluded. As I was standing outside reviewing my notes from the speech and my conversations, I spotted the aforementioned staff member, and asked him how many people he thought were in attendance. He said the capacity of the pub was 280 and he figured there were at least 200 people in the overflow. He then said, “A couple of people have left the main venue. Go to the side of the building and enter the second door. You’ll be just fine”. Voila! I was now standing in the prime position next to the press corps. From my position in the venue, the demographics seemed mostly 50-70 year old men and women. I saw a few persons of color and families with young children. Based on what Amy said to the overflow crowd and the presentation I heard in the main venue, I have pieced together her stump speech.

Amy started her formal remarks with a short discussion on the impeachment hearings in Washington and her role as a Senator. She pointed out that real trials require witnesses and unfortunately her GOP colleagues refused to allow any witnesses. She then talked about the number of endorsements she had gotten, both from Iowa legislators and the dual endorsement with Elizabeth Warren from the New York Times. She proudly stated that she was especially appreciative of the fact that the Times endorsed her as the moderate candidate. (By the way, she was also endorsed by the Iowa City Press-Citizen this morning).

Amy then turned to the issue of electability. She noted that she had won in the red parts of Minnesota that Trump had carried in 2016. She then shared a story about a Minnesota cattle rancher that illustrated her appeal from moderate Republicans and Independents. She said this rancher had voted for Trump in 2016, but it was shortly after the inauguration that he lost faith in the President. The example she used was when Trump stood in front of the “CIA wall” and lied about the size of his inauguration crowd. She also mentioned the rancher’s distain for  Trump when he gave a political speech to a gathering of Boy Scouts. She then pivoted to the fact that her husband was a Boy Scout and so were his brothers. She concluded her story with the statement that “the rancher is not voting for him again”. This statement produced a boisterous applause.

Amy then told a story about a recent “Blue Wall tour” she had taken of Midwestern states that had voted for Trump in 2016. She said these states will build a beautiful blue wall, and “Donald Trump will pay for it”. This use of humor, emphasizing her strong ties to the Midwest continued to be at the forefront of her message to Iowans. She then described how her agenda is one of “optimistic economic growth”. She talked about building bridges, not blowing them up.

A major part of her agenda emphasized building off the Affordable Care Act (ACA). She started by pointing out that polling on the ACA is more popular than Trump. She emphasized her plan to create a “non-profit private option” similar to Medicare. She also said she would take on the big drug companies. She also said she would allow Medicare to negotiate lower drug prices  and bring drugs from other countries, including Canada. She said she would do both of these things  through the executive powers available to the President. She said alone among the Democratic candidates “can get things done!”. The crowd erupted with applause. Next she spoke with great passion and energy about the twin issues of mental health challenges and addiction. She said mental health services and drug and alcohol coverage will be covered in her healthcare plan. She spoke about her father’s struggles with alcoholism and the difficulty of accessing adequate treatment either here in Iowa or anywhere in the country. She would change that and get it done. The final piece of her healthcare plan is to make sure Social Security is solvent, make Medicaid strong, and make it easier for  seniors to stay in their homes, through quality and affordable long-term health care. Once again, she tied her ideas about healthcare to the needs of her 91 year old father who has limited resources.

Another major policy piece is her plan to attack the climate crisis. She said she would return to the Paris accords, would overturn Trump’s destructive air and water policies, return to stringent gas mileage standards, and get a carbon neutral policy passed. She briefly mentioned foreign policy by noting that her good friend John McCain invited  her on a visit to Ukraine. She emphasized that foreign policy needed to be bipartisan and dependent on relations with our allies. She lamented that time didn’t allow for her to go into all of her other policy ideas, but that her website was full of details on all of the top issues of our time.

Closing Comments

Amy started her closing comments with, “I need your help!”. She reported on recent polls that showed her in the #3 position in Iowa. She described  her recent success in polling with the  boxing analogy, “punching beyond my weight”. She then reiterated her mantra that “I can get things done”, and I can win. She pointed out that she has won every election she has run since the 4^th grade. She even boasted that she has won in Minnesota archconservative Michelle Baughman’s House District three times. She then talked about her success in the red Minnesota counties on the Iowa border. She told the story of the late Minnesota Senator Paul Wellstone who tragically died in a plane crash while campaigning in 2002. She said he was best friends with Iowa Senator Tom Harkin. She now uses Sen. Wellstone’s green color scheme for her campaign to honor his memory and highlight the role he played in her life as a mentor and friend. Finally, she said “I have such faith in Iowans. Together we will win this Iowa Senate seat (from Joni Ernst) and win back the Presidency”. The crowd was all standing, and applause was loud and sustained.

The Photo Line

I was in a perfect position to be one of the first 50 or so persons in the photo line. Amy was gracious, smiling and clearly enjoying the adulation of the crowd. She and her staff efficiently moved the large crowd through the photo line. When I left the venue there was still a good 100 people in line. The excitement of the crowd was still palpable a good 30 minutes after she spoke.

My Take

The size of the crowd took Amy’s staff by surprise. When I spoke to one staffer, she was ebullient. She gleefully spoke about peaking at the right time and that Iowa would do the right thing. From a voter’s perspective, the large crowd was not ideal. The staff made the best of their large crowd with the overflow room. Unfortunately, making two speeches didn’t

allow Amy to go into a full, detailed presentation of many important topics such as foreign policy, income inequality, trade, education, energy, etc. Amy is surging, so maybe the purpose of today’s event was simply to rally her troops and show undecided voters how much excitement she has in her campaign. As I was walking back to the truck, I asked a 30ish male what he thought. He responded, “She understands Iowa. I thought she represented herself well. I’m pretty sure now I’ll caucus for her on Monday”. You can’t beat that!

Tom Steyer: A gathering of undecided voters

The Setting

I returned to the road to attend a Town Hall for Tom Steyer in the Mississippi River town of Muscatine. I previously visited Muscatine for a Pete event last week. That event was attended by a good 400 voters. Tom’s event was in a much smaller venue. It took place in a popular brewery right on the river. The intimate setting of 8 small tables placed in what looked to be a dance floor, one long table at the side of the space, a bar, and a couple of comfortable chairs in front of a fireplace  was a great place for the crowd of 70  to hear Tom make his case for attacking climate change and to vilify President Trump.

I arrived early to the venue for an 11:00 start time. I  was enthusiastically greeted by three young staffers. They offered me a free t-shirt with IOWA-for Tom on the front, multiple buttons, one that said “Impeachment”, another that said, “Trump is a failure and a fraud” and one that said  “Tom Iowa2020”. They also gave me a ticket for a free drink from the bar, it was a brewery after all. I took a seat at one of the small tables and started documenting the  scene around me. My attention was immediately drawn to a picture with four grown men or varying sizes standing against a red barn, their backs to the camera, and taking a pee. Val often says there is a way that men stand when they take a pee outside. This picture captured it perfectly. Other large posters were more direct and related to the topic at hand. A large BEAT TRUMP SIGN dominated one side of the room next to the long table. With these irreverent pictures and posters prominently displayed on the walls,  I wondered how a high minded policy discussion would take place.

The Pre-Arrival Discussion

One of the favorite things about attending political events in Iowa is that most everyone wants to talk. This group was the most loquacious I had met to date. The demographics of the group were: 50/50, male and female; the age distribution was mostly 50-70 years, with a few young adults and no obvious youth or students in the crowd; the ethnic make-up was 90% white and 10% black and Latino. There were farmers, small business owners, retired teachers, local government officials, the local Democratic party head, and a local Community College professor who was running for County Commissioner. The people came from all around the Muscatine area, including from across the river in Illinois. Many of the men wore ball caps, sweat shirts and jeans. The women varied from business dress to warm sweaters and slacks.  By the way, the crowd at Pete’s event, appeared to have much more business and civic leaders, many young people, and  some parents who brought their children with them.

The group of people who sat with me were all undecided on who to caucus for on February 3. The entire conversation prior to Tom arriving was lively and uninhibited. The free glass of beer helped, but the passions of all of the people I spoke with were strong. Aside from a unanimous repudiation of Trump, and the opinion that turnout would be “record-breaking and huge”, the group lamented that they had not settled on a candidate. Rather than view the candidates as weak, the consensus was that there are so many good candidates. The problem they expressed was getting enough information and exposure to each of the candidates to make an informed decision. Each of my new friends were anxious about “getting it right” and felt the burden of being the first state to vote. They all described how difficult it was to decide on just one person. They mentioned the relative ease of deciding on a first candidate for the caucus of 2008 with Obama and Clinton and 2016 with Clinton and Sanders. This year there is Sanders who is decidedly the most left-wing person on the ballot. Warren is not as liberal as Sanders, but still pretty liberal. The rest of the candidates are various shades of moderate. One of the retired school teachers said, “Each of the candidates contributes something of value. It’s just that we don’t know which candidate is the best one to beat Trump.” When I mentioned the potential that some of Bernie’s voters would not  support a “moderate” candidate, the response from one table mate was, “We went through that situation in 2016. It simply cannot happen this year. Trump will make sure that all Democrats and Independents turnout”. This was as close to a consensus position as we could get on the topic of who to vote for in the Iowa caucus. As we discussed our favorite candidates, it seemed like each of us had a list of at least 3-4 top choices. The top four choices were Biden, Warren, Pete and Amy, in roughly that order. Each of my 10 table mates, had seen Pete, most had seen Biden, a few had seen Warren, and none had seen Amy. All were open to Tom, but knew little about him, except that he was a business man, wanted term limits, and was openly anti-Trump.

The Stump Speech

Tom started his speech by pointing out that Trump was in Des Moines. He then exclaimed, “Trump is a fake businessman”. He then went on to describe his personal life. He said he didn’t think of himself as rich. His mother was a school teacher and worked in the prisons. He described family ties to Iowa. He said his dad and mom were depression era babies, and his grandfather was a plumber. He discussed the family value of giving back. He described the role his father played as a lawyer in the Nazi trials in Nuremburg, emphasizing his father’s advice to fight against hate and tyranny. He concluded this phase of his background with the claim that there is something terribly wrong in the White House.

Next he discussed how he started a business and grew it for 25 years. He made billions of dollars. When he walked away from the business he and his wife pledged to give away much of his fortune. He then formed NextGenAmerica, a grassroots organization that fought drug and fossil fuel companies, and energy utilities  to improve conditions for working class people. He then asserted that the large corporations have bought the government. He described how this grassroots organization mobilizes youth to vote and create change. The top priorities for Next Gen America are climate change and term limits for members of the U.S. House and Senate.

Tom then described how he would attack the climate crisis. Up until this time, the crowd gave him polite applause for his occasional digs at Trump. Now the presentation was getting serious. He said that on the first day of his administration he would declare a national emergency on the climate. As he started talking about his climate plans his body language and voice got more energized. He spoke with authority and was clearly excited. He talked about the problems of polluted air and water. He then said he would rebuild our infrastructure in a “climate smart way”, which would create 4 ½ million good union jobs. He argued that we will lead the world in creating a green, climate friendly economy. We will also be a moral country.

As soon as he said “moral”, he went back to his criticism of Trump. He said he wanted to debate Trump and challenge him on the economy. He then told the story of how Trump went to Florida to meet with  group of leaders from  the Jewish community. He described how Trump told them “you don’t like me, I don’t like you, but you are going to vote for me because the Democrats are a bunch of socialists and will ruin the economy”. This story produced a polite response from the crowd. Tom then said that we need to throw out Trump not because he is a criminal or a mean person, but because he is incompetent. As illustration of his point, he listed trade wars, waivers, tax cuts for the rich, etc. At this point his stump speech came to an abrupt, unanticipated conclusion.

Question and Answer Period

The first question was about the “war on drugs”. Tom has not yet mastered the art of this form of retail politics. His response to the question was not fully formed and he was a bit halting in his answer. He did say that the opioid crisis had killed 72,000 people in 2018. He briefly noted that a friend of his had died of heroine addiction. He said he supported the legalization of marijuana and got a rousing round of applause. He then said that the opioid crisis is  a reflection of a larger issue. He went on to state that life expectancy has continued to decline in the U.S. Unfortunately for him, he made that statement after credible press reports had noted that U.S. life expectancy rose for the first time in four years due to decreases in drug deaths and  suicides. I wrote a note in my journal that I would talk to Tom about this after the event. One of the retired teachers at my table whispered to me that she had seen the CNN article this morning. We both noted that he had gotten an early start this morning and probably did not see the article. As he finished the brief answer on the ‘war on drugs” he then returned to climate change and called for moral leadership in the world.

The second question was about the relationship between quality housing and education. On this topic Tom felt a bit more confident. He returned to his business acumen and stated that we probably have 7 million too few affordable housing units in the country. He reiterated his climate pitch emphasizing that he would put hundreds of billions of dollars into climate smart houses and apartments. He then argued that the U.S. government needs to get back into the business of building affordable housing because private developers just won’t do it. He then pivoted to the education issue, noting that we spend 700 billion on defense, 100 billion more under Trump. He asserted that we need more funding for education, which is proven to be the key component for prosperity for all. He then reported that the #1 predictor of success in life in 3^rd grade reading comprehension. He then said, “Obviously we need to start before the 3^rd grade. Getting children started in reading by the age of three is too late, age five is certainly too late”. Unfortunately, he didn’t elaborate on what he meant by ‘getting started”. Furthermore, he didn’t say the words, comprehensive, universal preschool, so the audience was left to fill in the blanks for themselves.

The next question was about trade. The questioner took a good three or four minutes to ask the question. The crowd and Tom grew impatient as the questioner droned on. When the questioner paused to catch his breath, Tom intervened and said that China steals our technology and artificial intelligence research.  He then asked, why does the Trump administration punish corn, soybeans and farm producers? We should take the technology issue head on with China. He further stated that Trump is stealing from Iowa. He then made a curious comment about it being like Robin Hood.  Again, one of the retired teachers noted that Robin Hood stole from the rich and gave to the poor. By his reckoning Trump was stealing from the poor and giving to the rich.

The final question from yours truly was about the criteria he would use to recruit and select members of his cabinet and administration. He responded with a discussion on the value of diversity and how his campaign is over 50% women, persons of color, and LGBTQ. He further noted that as a white male with both Yale and Stanford degrees, he is not overly impressed with those types of credentials. He further argued that his interest is in recruiting experts who have front line experience. He used the example of Rep. Barbara Lee from California who had the wisdom to be the only vote in congress against the authorization for military force against terrorists. He concluded his response with the call for a government that values freedom, justice and equality.

The Photo Op

Like Joe Biden, Tom spent a generous amount of time with each member of the crowd in the photo line. He and I talked about our backgrounds in the San Francisco Bay area. His wife and I were both born in San Mateo. We also briefly chatted about both of our families having a background Iowa. I thanked him for his work to mobilize young people to vote.

My Take

Tom is learning the ropes on how to conduct a person to person retail campaign. Compared to his competitors in the Democratic primary, he is deficient in the areas of policy related public speaking and articulation of a coherent message beyond Beat Trump and climate change. Tom is still pretty stiff, almost awkward, when speaking about topics other than himself, Trump, climate change, education, business or the economy. Furthermore, I came away from the event with questions about his policy ideas on a whole range of issues such as Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, foreign policy, our democracy, the Affordable Care Act, immigration or income inequality. He tends to make a statement about a certain issue, but not explain it or describe it in any detail. He certainly is focused on climate change and the economic and health effects of making it a top priority of our government. I hope he continues to speak out on the climate, spend his money on organizing the youth of America to vote in this election, and be a thorn in the side of Donald Trump.

Joe Biden-Character is on the ballot this year

The Joe Biden Town Hall took place in the Student Union at the University of Iowa in Iowa City. After the long drives to visit the other candidates around the state of Iowa, it was refreshing to be able to travel across town to see Joe Biden. The crowd was equally balanced between young, student-types, middle-aged and us elderly folks. When I first arrived to check into the event, the attendees were decidedly elderly. The staff and volunteers supporting the Biden campaign were predominantly students, and of diverse ethnicity. While us elderly folks patiently waited in line for the doors to open, the staff and volunteers were excited, verbal, and affectionate with each other. The actual students arrived just as the doors were opening. Little did we know they had reserved seats in the bleachers behind the podium. They each had a Biden for Iowa poster and provided much of the enthusiasm during the run-up to the event.

When we took our seats, 30 minutes prior to the start of the festivities, a large cadre of volunteers descended on the crowd to recruit for canvas and phone bank efforts. In contrast to the Bernie Sanders event in Ames, where the volunteer recruitment took place outside in brutally cold and windy temperatures, we were contacted in our warm seats inside the venue. I was personally contacted by 5 different volunteers during the course of the event.

I was sitting with a small group of people I had met in line. One was a friendly, 70ish male wearing a ball cap with two large Biden buttons on the front. He sported a Biden for Iowa t-shirt and had a Biden bumper sticker haphazardly slapped on the right thigh of his blue jeans. He and I had quite an extensive discussion about the recent New York Times poll that showed Bernie ahead of the pack by seven points. Pete, Biden and Warren were clustered in the high teens behind him. My friend said, “I don’t believe that for a minute. Biden’s voters are like the ‘silent majority”. We don’t scream and yell and stomp our feet. We just vote.” When I told him that Nat Cohn of the New York Times wrote that Bernie voters were planning to vote at higher percentages than Biden voters, he used some choice expletives in his response. He further said, “look at the people here tonight. There are a lot of old people here on a Monday night. Each one of us has friends and family and they will caucus. Four years ago it was 20 degrees below and people still came out”. I noted that the 2016 caucus turnout was below 2008. He stated, “the turnout will be massive this year, you wait and see. We have Trump to thank for that”.

The Introduction

The event began with a formal recitation of the “Pledge of Allegiance”. Joe Biden and his small entourage entered the hall to slightly elevated music and lots of cheering, especially from the student section behind the podium. The first welcome was offered by the Campus Coordinator who spoke of Biden’s commitment to diversity, and as a bi-racial student, she believed his policies are right for students. Joe was then introduced by 75 year old Tom Miller, the Iowa Attorney General. He has served in this role for 25 years, and is a really low key speaker. What he lacked in oratory, he made up with a down to earth, take my word, Joe Biden is the real deal, I’ve known him forever, he is good on the issues and is a great friend of Iowa type of speech. He specifically pointed out Joe’s “immense character” and emphasized that Joe will bring the country together, repair the damage internationally, is the most electable candidate, and will bring the working class back to the Democratic party.  He thanked the voters from Johnson County for contributing to his success. He finally raised his voice when he exerted the faithful to caucus for Joe. The crowd finally could let loose with a rousing round of applause.

Joe’s Stump Speech

I know Joe Biden had a stump speech because I could see it on the podium. He didn’t turn any pages that I could tell from my second row seat to the side of the podium. His speech would best be described as a combination of a walk down memory lane, and a stream of consciousness on the things that were on his mind at the time. He alternately spoke in barely a whisper, in a normal conversational voice, and even punctuated some of his points with a loud, emphatic call. Mostly his speech was like he was talking to family and friends around the dinner table. There was often little urgency in his voice. The  exceptions were when he talked about character being on the ballot this year; how Trump and the GOP were attacking him and his family and degrading the moral fabric of our country; his commitment to civil rights; how he loves high speed and light rail services; and his passion about climate change and all things environmental.

Character on the Ballot

He started his speech with the assertion that democracy begins in Iowa. He stated that this election is the most important in history. He stated that he was running for President because so much is at stake and the character of the nation is on the ballot. He then went on an extended story of how Trump called the military brass of the country “losers, dopes, and babies”. He said that these are the leaders of the soldiers who sacrifice their lives for us. He went on to assert that Trump walked out of Iran. He then said that he fears Trump going to do something very stupid. He then discussed the recent bombing of our soldiers in Iraq. He said that “these 34 warriors have Traumatic Brain Injury (TBI). What does Trump say? They have headaches. And what about the Kurds? They cut down ISIS. 10,000 Kurds died. Our forces trained them. Who will trust us now”?

He next discussed how the next President will take over a nation divided. He said we need to assure our allies that we will continue to lead the world, and this is not the time for “on the job training”. He said that Trump treats NATO like a protection racket, no one acts like he does. He asserted that this country was not built by Wall Street, it was built by the working people of America. He went on to say that Trump and the GOP gave a  1.9 trillion dollar tax cut to the wealthy. He once again pointed out that character is on the ballot, emphasizing that we cannot govern by division and separation. He said, “I will unite the Democrats and the country. Character is on the ballot”. The crown warmly applauded when he finished his thought.

The Object of their Affection

When Joe started talking about Trump, he changed his tone of voice and said calmly, “Being the object of their affection, from Trump and the GOP, it makes me stronger”. Then raising his voice and moving his arms he shouted, “And I will beat him like a drum!”. The crowd went wild. He went on to say that Trump and Ukraine are like Alice in Wonderland. He said that Presidents cannot hold grudges, they have to be healers. He then discussed how he did not believe we are a dark nation. But then went on a stream of consciousness listing of a number of policy and public statements associated with Trump. A sampling included:  he puts kids in cages; he deports them; the press is not the enemy of the people; fulfilling the oath of office is not optional; the moral fabric of the country is being ripped; we aren’t perfect; it’s about decency; we shouldn’t mock our opponents or demean the immigrant. Throughout this discussion, he would occasionally modify his conversational tone, and discuss how we need to work together.

His Commitment to Civil Rights

Joe became alternately nostalgic and forceful when talking about his commitment to Civil Rights. First he spoke of his early professional career as a public defender. He then became tense and angry when he recalled hearing that Trump has said there are good people on both sides after the death, anger, hate and destruction that took place in Charlottesville. He noted that these white supremacists spewed hate, were Nazis and racists. He almost whispered when he said that this is not who we are as Americans, we’ve got to change, we have never walked away from a fight. He then stated with emphasis, “this is the United States of America”.

Question and Answer Period

The question and answer period focused on questions from the students sitting on the bleachers behind the podium. The first question was about climate change. Joe’s answer was long, detailed, a bit meandering, and chock full of examples and personal details of his experience in the environmental movement. He claimed that climate change is the most important issue in the world. He then discussed how he would do the following: #1 return to the Paris accord; #2 bring representatives of all of the nations of the world to the White House to the restart international cooperation; #3 propose $900 billion is research on new technologies, examples of which would be wind, sun, soil, and batteries (and by the way windmills do not cause cancer)-applause; #4 propose a Green infrastructure plan to create new jobs; #5 promote new high speed and light rail lines. He was especially animated in this last point, pointing out that he rode the train for years and has long been on the vanguard of rail travel.

The second question related to the challenges young people have in becoming independent while being saddled with high college debt and scant opportunities for high paying jobs. Joe weaved together a response that included: helping students forgive their student debt if they work in professions such as teaching and social work; for those who do not go into teaching or social work he has a plan to freeze their debt and interest until they make over $25,000 per year; doubling Pell grants; providing access to credit for the purchase of a first home; investing in rural economic development, especially in areas of medicine, healthcare and technology, so young people do not need to leave their home communities and move to the cities where jobs are more plentiful. He finished with a vision of the future that is rapidly changing. He asserted that America will be the driver of change in technology and medicine, and young people will help drive that change.

The Rope Line

Immediately after the completion of the speech, his staff roped off the podium area. Joe then walked to the student section in the bleachers and spend the next 30 minutes talking, taking pictures, and joyfully interacting with the students. He took both individual, small group, and a large group picture with the students. Those of us in the audience waited patiently while he then made his way around the rope line.

What struck me was that Joe was in no hurry to complete this activity. I watched as he stopped to talk with each person, spending 2-3 minutes with some participants and no less than 30 second with any person. I believe he draws strength from these interpersonal relations. I had an up close view of his interactions. Many of the women actively hugged Joe. He definitely is a warm and engaging person. It did appear to me that he took his  cues from the people. He was not overly  “touchy feely”. When he came to me, I had waited 45 minutes on the rope line. Another 20-30 people were still in line behind me. He shook my hand and said, “I noticed you were talking lots of notes during my speech”. I told him I was a retired Special Education professor from the University of Oregon. He made a positive comment and said, “What are you doing in Iowa?”. I told him I was visiting my daughter who is a neurosurgeon resident in Iowa City, my daughter in law and new grandson. He then put his hands on my shoulders, stared me in the eyes and said, “God bless her and you. I know quite a bit about neurosurgeons. Pointing to his head, he said they saved my life”. This was a powerful feeling to have this intimate interaction with Joe. He is a wonderful man.

My Take

Joe Biden is a person of character. If he is the nominee I will work to get him elected. He is  focused on people and the interpersonal aspects of politics. His moderate policy positions do not equate with “big structural change”, but do more than just “nibble around the edges”. I was pleased he had such a large group of student volunteers and staff to recruit and turn young people out for the caucuses. The crowd was the most age balanced of any I have seen since being in Iowa. His meandering, stream of consciousness approach to public speaking will be negatively contrasted to the crisp, articulate, detailed styles of Pete, Andrew, and Elizabeth. He doesn’t have the sustained, organized rhetoric and passion of Bernie. In sum, he is Joe Biden and a very good man. We’ll see what the Iowa voters think of him on caucus night.

Elizabeth Warren: Vigor, compassion and “I have a plan”.

Sunday started early when I awoke at 6:30, went down for breakfast and was out the door at 8:00. The drive from Grinnell to Davenport was in dense fog and 23 degree weather. I followed a big truck pretty much all the way to Iowa City. Once to Iowa City, the fog lifted and I was in bright, partly cloudy skies all the way to Davenport. The trip took a little over two hours, but I was refreshed when I arrived.

The venue for the Warren Town Hall was the gymnasium of a public school. When I arrived, the place was full, with just a few single chairs available in the ring around the podium. Canned music was blaring from the loud speakers. The crowd was in a festive move, with people seeming to know each other. Soon after I arrived, they opened the bleachers against one wall to accommodate the extra people. In all, I guess there were 400 or so people in attendance. The audience was a mixture of middle aged and older voters. There were a few younger voters, but less than 10% by my estimate.

Sitting on one side of me, was a middle aged woman who was an enthusiastic Warren supporter. She liked Warren because she was smart, had liberal but not too radical ideas, and had a plan for all of the important issues. On the other side of me was a retired school teacher who had not made up her mind, but had Warren as one of three final candidates. Her husband was an enthusiastic Warren support, who had been selected by a raffle draw to ask Elizabeth one of the five questions during the question and answer period. The retired teacher liked Warren, but needed to hear her in person before she could make her final decision. Her other choices were Biden and Amy.

Elizabeth Warren was introduced by the Illinois State Treasurer. Davenport is one of the Quad-Cities bordering the Mississippi River. Two cities are in Iowa and two cities are in Illinois. He made the case for getting out to the caucus, pointing out that he won his first race for Treasurer by a scant 5,000 , less than one percent of the votes cast. He brought his elementary school aged daughter with him and talked about the valuable role model Warren played, in obvious contrast to the “current occupant” of the White House.

Her Stump Speech

After the introduction, Warren came bounding across the gymnasium floor and up the stairs to the platform. She exuded strength, energy, vigor and health. She was greeted with wild applause. Her initial remarks focused on her personal story. She included her parents working class background, her brothers military experience, and her desire as a child to be a public school teacher. She then talked about going to community college, getting her four year degree, teaching for one year and then getting pregnant. Her contract was not renewed due to the pregnancy, so instead of staying home, she took her child with her to Law School. She then practiced Law for a short time and then started teaching in Law School. This experience led her to focus her research on the economic challenges of the middle class, with a special emphasis on bankruptcy.

After her personal story she launched into a detailed analysis of corruption in the U.S. government. She repeatedly drew the relationship between corporate interests, lobbying, government contracts, tax breaks, and  systemic “corruption, pure and simple”. Then she popped her first, “And I have a Plan for that!”.

Her plan is to fight against the influence of money that fuels corporate and government corruption. Her organizing principle is the need for “big structural change”. Part of her plan is to “end lobbying as we know it”. She said she will take on Wall Street and the Washington lobbyists, and force the Supreme Court to follow basic rule of ethics. She called for all elected officials to release their tax returns. She wants to make the U.S. economy to work for all people, not just wealthy corporations and individuals.

She then talked about how she would unify the country by focusing on the things in which we agree. She used the example of her three brothers. Two are Republican and she and her other brother are Democrats. They do not agree on many issues, but do agree on enough to be able to work together. One of the examples of agreement she provided was Amazon. She said “they made 10 billion dollars in profit and didn’t pay any taxes”. She then described her wealth tax on the wealthiest individuals.  She said the middle class all pay their taxes, why should Amazon be exempt? She again tied the issue to corruption. The crowd roared at this example.

Other examples of her “unifying the country” goals, included: sensible gun laws, keeping our government accountable to the people, and restoring our democracy. On the topic of democracy she said that the wealthy corporations and individuals can have a bigger share of  money, but they cannot have a bigger share of our democracy. She said we need to stay in the fight for our democracy.

Healthcare featured  prominently in her discussion of her big structural change. On healthcare, she described it as a basic human right. She further asserted that defending the Affordable Care Act would be one of the first things she does after taking office. She’ll also bring prescription costs down, and support rural and community hospitals.

Elizabeth also touched on the electability issue. She emphasized that she has been building a grassroots campaign organization throughout Iowa for the past year. She said she planned to win the nomination. But left no doubt that she was “100% behind the Democratic candidate”. She described beating a popular Republican Senator, the only time it has been accomplished in the past 30 years. She further noted, “women win” elections. She asserted that woman candidates have been outperforming men since Trump was elected. Her line of “old ways of looking at things just don’t work anymore” brought down the house. Again she tied the change to the rampant corruption in Washington. By now her voice was communicating great passion and emotion. The topics of women in politics, corruption in Washington, and inequality in resources were united in her closing statement.

Question and Answer Period  

A feature of Warren’s Town Hall was using a raffle to select persons to ask her questions. The first question touched her deeply. A woman described how her son has challenges in his behavior at school. He is not eligible for an Individual Education Plan (IEP), but has a 504 plan. She said the school can’t afford to provide her son with the supports he needs. She said, “It is not out of malice, it’s just that they don’t have the money”. Elizabeth walked down to hug the woman. They both held each other and cried for a good minute. Wiping her eyes, Elizabeth forcefully stated, “There is no money because rich people don’t pay their share of taxes”. She mentioned her “2 cent” wealth tax proposal. She then stated, “My plan fully funds IDEA” (the federal special education law).

Another question addressed the issue of legalization of marijuana. Her response was that we should legalize it and expunge the records of felons with marijuana convictions. She further asserted that marijuana convictions are a race based issue, explaining that a disproportionate number of African-Americans are incarcerated due to marijuana laws.

Another question addressed foreign policy. Her response started that her foreign policy would not be by “tweet”. She said that she knew the difference between allies and foes. And further stated that as a member of the Senate Armed Services Committee, she has traveled the world to meet with our troops. She noted that a primary responsibility of the President is to “keep the United States safe”. She emphasized the  Importance of diplomacy and the need to cut funding for the defense industry.

A final question came from a young girl. The girl asked Warren what she would do to “protect Mother Nature”? Elizabeth came down from the podium, kneeled and gently and carefully told her the question addresses one of the most important issues of our time. She then rose and discussed climate change. She said that scientists now believe the problem is much worse than imagined. She wants “farmers to be part of the climate solution”. She then emphasized, “I believe in science”. She finished with her now familiar refrain that the climate crisis is pure “corruption”.

Her conclusion called out for action to address the corruption in politics. She said she was running a “campaign from the heart”. She would advantage “people not money” in her policy decisions. Her final words were “this is a moment in history…we need to dream big and fight big!”.

The Selfie Line

Within seconds of the end of the raucous applause, a staff member informed us of the starting place for the “selfie line”. I fortunately was near the start of the line and was probably 50^th in line. Within minutes the line snaked all the way around the gym. Elizabeth has the selfie process down to a science. She has three staff managing the line, another group of 10 of so staff recruiting volunteers for canvassing and phone banking. One staff member handles the selfie. I got a good 20 seconds with Elizabeth. At first she shook my hand. I then told her I was a retired Special Education professor from the University of Oregon and she grabbed my hand again and thanked me. I then told her “my  91 year old Mother is one of her biggest fans”. She smiled again. During this time the staff member took 15 really good pictures of the two of us. I was thrilled to have gotten my selfie with Elizabeth Warren!

My Take

Elizabeth Warren is a compelling candidate. She is part of the “progressive” wing of the Democratic party. She shares many of  Bernie’s issues, but is distinctly different in four ways. First, she has moderated her position on the Medicare for All policy by saying she would “defend the Affordable Care Act” as one of her first decisions in the White House. Second, she was clear that she was “100% behind the Democratic candidate” in the fall. Third, she is a capitalist and would let rich people and corporations keep a large chunk of their money. Finally, she is really warm and exudes compassion for the people she interacts with in her Town Hall meetings. She used the term “unifying” several times in describing for goals. It will be interesting if she can successfully keep the bulk of her progressive followers and also appeal to the “left center” voters. The retired teacher said “I’m almost ready to make a decision”. Her husband said, “She’s with Warren”.  We’ll know a bit more come next Monday in the Iowa caucus.

Bernie, AOC and Michael: Progressive Icons on the Prairie

My trip to see and experience the Bernie Sanders rally in Ames started with a stop in Grinnell, home of Grinnell College. This small town, called the “Jewel of the Prairie” has importance to Val and me because we stopped there in 1976 on our cross-continent tour that took us from Eugene to Nova Scotia via Canada and home via Interstate 80. On this return trip we were dangerously low on money, so we camped the night under a low hanging fir tree on campus. This short stay created idyllic memories of that epic journey prior to our marriage later that fall. We returned to Grinnell in  June 2013 when we drove the rented Pensky truck with Liesl’s possessions from Tucson, Arizona to Iowa City. We stopped in Grinnell, stayed in a B and B, searched for our fir tree and had a great nostalgic visit. We then made it to Iowa City for the start of Liesl’s Residency at the University of Iowa. My Saturday stop was highlighted by a glorious, sunny, snow laden, bucolic, Midwestern small college experience. I spent the afternoon walking around campus, and talking to a few students about the campaign. Bernie is very strong, but Biden, Warren, and Yang have moderate levels of support. Michael Moore spoke to a small gathering on Friday night.  Primarily I was reliving my joy at once again being in Grinnell.

Late in the afternoon I drove to Ames, the home of Iowa State University. The Sanders event started at 7:00, with the doors opening at 6:30. I arrived at 6:00, found the parking lot of the venue packed with cars, and a long line of people stretching from the entrance around the building and half way down a parallel street. The temperatures were in the mid 20’s with a stiff wind. For the next 50 minutes I waited in the line with a group of 18-25 year-olds who were passionate Bernie supporters. Aside from the novelty of a 70 year-old guy from Oregon in the line with  them, they were unphased with having to stand in line in the freezing cold to see their beloved Bernie Sanders. We stood in line while contsant groups of Bernie volunteers, some from as far away as Chicago and the Twin cities, came by to ask us to sign in for the event, or volunteer to canvas or phone for Bernie. Several of the people in line had canvassed for Bernie earlier in the day and were really excited about the experience. What I love about Bernie is that he is getting 1,000’s of first time voters and young people involved in the political process.

As we slowly made our way to the entrance, I was chilled to the bone despite having a wool sweater, down vest, Carhart jacket, gloves and a hat. I looked back one last time at the long line behind me and wondered if these people would gain entrance. Once into the venue, there were a dozen or so single seats scattered throughout the room. I noticed that a good five or six rows in the middle of the back of the hall were reserved for the media. That meant a good 100 seats were out of commission for the audience. I grabbed a seat 2/3’s of the way back from the stage. As I perused the audience, it looked 80% college students or young adults, 10% middle aged adults, and 10% grew haired folks. A solo singer with a guitar was on stage playing relaxing folk music. The noise in the room was light and convivial. Within minutes of my sitting, a hundred people assembled on stage with Bernie signs. Again the mix was 80-90% young people. In addition, a hundred or so exclusively young people lined the walls on both side of the hall for standing room only. Just before the band started playing, we were told that 500 people were in an overflow room next door. By my inexact calculation, there were 1,200 or so attending this rally.

Michael Moore: The opener

Michael Moore started off by telling us that he was spending the final twelve days before the Iowa caucuses to help Bernie Sanders win Iowa. The crowd erupted. He then said that goal #1 for this campaign is to remove Trump, not just beat him but crush him. The crowd stood and cheered, still louder. From there Michael, who constantly adjusted his Detroit Tigers ball cap, went into a long presentation challenging those who say Bernie is too old. He noted that Bernie has a consistent record for the past 60 years. He strung together multiple lines of “He is too old to change, he won ‘t change! He cannot be bought. He has the wisdom of an elder”. More applause. Next he did a play on the need for universal, free healthcare. He pointed out that Belgium had universal healthcare. “If Belgium can afford free healthcare, then the richest country in the history of the world, the United States of America can afford free health care”. The crowd stood and cheered. One of his best lines of the night was, “The New York Times just came out with a poll showing Bernie way ahead. The greedy people saw this and couldn’t eat breakfast this morning”. He finished with a humorous get out the vote appeal. He said, don’t tell me you don’t have time to volunteer this week. This is a revolution. The kids can walk to soccer this week. Remember the French Resistance? Well, you need to be part of the Iowa Resistance! The crowd stood and cheered and yelled.

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez-AOC

When AOC was introduced, she ran on stage, did an exuberant dance and the crowd went wild. She moved across the stage with grace and confidence. She started with the line, that Senator Sanders’ campaign is about the transformation of our Country, and the need for fundamental change in our democracy. She asserted that we need to be fighting for people we don’t know. She argued that true democracy is slipping away, and then asked the question, “How do we organize for it?”. Her calm, reasoned approach appealed to me. Based on seeing her on television, I imagined that she would was a firebrand. In this speech she was passionate and thoughtful. In contrast to Michael’s “raw meat” type of speech, AOC was calm, articulate, almost professorial. She mainly got polite applause to her main lines during the speech. I thought her best story was about homelessness in New York City. She lamented the fact that homeless people are on the streets, while luxury apartments go unrented. She stated that this is not a coincidence. She said we need to do what is just and right. I was thoroughly impressed with her speech. She is passionate about her ideas, and speaks with authority and  conviction.

Bernie Sanders

Bernie Sanders, looking tan and rested, took the stage to “rock star acclaim”. Despite the adulation of the crowd, his demeanor was reserved and humble. He introduced his speech with a note on his role in the impeachment trial. He then warmed the crowd up with his signature stump speech. He stated that this campaign has two goals, #1 to defeat the most dangerous President in modern history. He went on to say that this man is a pathological liar, who leads a corrupt administration, is a racist, homophobe, etc. This got the crowd going, but Bernie didn’t really acknowledge the applause. He went right on with, and #2, we plan to  deliver the largest turnout in U.S. history. He noted that the same old politics will not generate this needed level of excitement. Young people are the most progressive voters in this country, but they don’t typically vote. Only with a dynamic agenda of progressive change can we lay the groundwork for true change in this country. He boasted that his campaign has already knocked on hundreds of thousands of doors. Furthermore, he stated, “this campaign has more small dollar donors than any in history. This campaign is bottom up. Bottom up change is real change. We are fighting to build a movement. A democracy that works for all people, not just Wall Street, the banks, the pharmaceutical and insurance companies, the military industrial complex, the fossil fuel industry, private prisons, the 1%, etc. And our campaign is taking all of these special interests on!”. This led to loud, stomping, exuberant applause.

Over the next 30 or so minutes Bernie articulated the progressive agenda. He often went into little detail as he spoke. He mentioned: millions of new jobs with an infrastructure plan, more funding for education, quality and affordable universal child care, more funding for Title I schools, teachers earning at least $60,000 a year, tuition free public colleges and universities, cancel all student debt, Medicare for All.

When he mentioned healthcare, he devoted several minutes to detailing the benefits and challenges of his healthcare plan. His plan includes: eye care, hearing aids, home health care, dental. “There is no co-pay, it’s all paid for”. He once again emphasized the twin evils of the drug companies and the insurance companies, that force many people into bankruptcy because they cannot pay their bills. He also detailed how he would pay for his plan. There will be a 4% tax. The first $29,000 are exempt. Everyone will pay less under this plan. With this there was polite applause.

After the detailed discussion on his healthcare plan, he returned to the progressive agenda. It included: climate change, ending our dependence on fossil fuels, fixing our broken and racist criminal justice system, investing in young people and education, ending cash bail, ending private prisons and detention centers, ending the war on drugs, legalizing marijuana, expunging the records of marijuana felons, repealing all of Trump’s racist policies, restoring DACA, stopping baby snatching at the border, reforming gun laws, promoting background checks, ending the gun show loophole, stopping the sale of assault weapons, codifying Roe vs. Wade, expanding Planned Parenthood. Whew! That is quite the list. Applause was appreciative, but not overly thunderous, in large part because Bernie doesn’t give it a chance to swell. He keeps the message moving. I was on the edge of my seat, trying to take notes on his voluminous promises.

His final appeal was that his campaign is the one best positioned to beat Trump, wealth inequality, corruption, money in politics, promote healthcare for all, the climate, living wages, and to take on the Democratic establishment. He then said, “I humbly ask for your support. If you hear that turnout is high next week, then we win. If turnout is low, we lose”.

My Take

Bernie Sanders is the master of progressive politics. His message is compelling, his persona authentic, and he is consistent as the tides. The people attending this rally are members of his base. They are true believers. I came away from the rally having appreciation for AOC’s message of fundamental, transformation of our democracy. I also respect Bernie’s determination and the passion of his followers. My only concern is the comment Bernie made toward the end of his speech, when he linked the Democratic establishment to the ills that plague our country. This elicited anxiety that some percentage of his supporters will not vote if he is not nominated. I hope my fear is overblown.

Andrew Yang-A seriously intelligent voice for the future

This morning it snowed four inches in Iowa City. I awoke early, drank a cup of coffee, had a light breakfast, grabbed the snow shovel and headed outside. This was the second day in a row that I shoveled a goodly amount of snow. My piles are starting to reach the four foot level on either side of their driveway. The lawn on either side of their sidewalk has a good 8 or so inches of the white fluffy stuff.

The practice of people getting out early to shovel their sidewalk is a tradition in Iowa and especially in Iowa City. Liesl, Lauren and Lucas’s (L3) house is less than half a mile from the University of Iowa Medical School. Hundreds of staff, students, residents, and faculty walk by their house every morning. Whenever I visit L3 in the winter, I gleefully take the responsibility of shoveling the extensive sidewalk bordering their corner lot.

After shoveling the sidewalk and driveway, I pulled Liesl’s truck out of the garage and headed out into the still falling snow to Burlington, on the Mississippi River. My destination is the Andrew Yang Town Hall. Burlington is 78 miles from Iowa City. It was snowing and I was anxious about the long drive in wintery conditions. It was helpful to know that the local and state road crews do a fantastic job of keeping the roads clear. In town there was still a good layer of slush at this early hour. Once to the four-lane highway, I encountered more water than snow or ice, but the large trucks still threw some nasty material on my windshield.

The scene driving from Iowa City was a combination of dense fog and snow showers against a background of a white landscape altered only with by the occasional farm house, barn, mail box, leafless tree, and mail box. For the first 30 or so miles the snow came down and seemed to disappear when it hit my windshield. The big trucks were going a good 10 miles per hour faster than me, and some of the cars were going 20 mile per hour faster than me. I observed a good dozen cars in the ditch in the middle of the highways or stuck in the snow on the side of the road beyond the shoulder. I was content on going 60 MPH in the 65 MPH zone. Mind you, there weren’t that many vehicles on the road, but when they came they came quickly.

After 90 minutes on the road, I arrived in Burlington. The venue for the Andrew Yang Town Hall was in a small church that had been converted into a meeting center. Two men were busily clearing the parking lot with a motorized snow remover and a large snow blower.

I entered the small center and was greeted by a young man in a blue MATH ball cap and a hooded sweat shirt with “Yang Gang” embroidered on the front and back. He was a young man with a beard and a friendly smile. He said, “Are you here for the Town Hall?” I said, “Yes” and he enthusiastically welcomed me. All around were the advance team putting up large and small posters that said, MATH, Iowa for Yang, Welcome to the Yang Gang. There were multiple boxes of donuts and a large water container for refreshments. The sign-in was a large bar code that you scanned with a smart phone. Up came a short sign up window and a couple questions about why you support Andrew Yang. The high tech nature of the sign in indicated to me that Andrew Yang really embraces all things tech. I acted as if this was all very commonplace for me, when in reality I was daunted and amazed at how much technology has advanced. I took a seat in the front row, directly in front of the small podium and relaxed.

While I was waiting to hear Andrew’s presentation, a couple from Burlington sat next me. He was 58 and recently retired and she was 63 and planning to retire in the next couple of years. Within second of them sitting down he asked me, “How many candidates have you visited thus far?” When I told him that I had only the one visit with Pete on Tuesday, he told me that he has seen Biden, Sanders, Pete, Booker, and now Yang. He planned to see Warren this weekend, He also noted that he had “selfies” with Biden, Pete, and Booker, and couldn’t wait to get one with Yang and Warren. I asked him why he hadn’t seen Amy, he said he was very disappointed that he had missed her and thought that he might see her on Saturday in Bettendorf.

As we waited for Andrew’s arrival we talked about all things political in Iowa. The man started the conversation off by stating that he was an independent and would be caucusing with the Democrats this year. His wife immediately informed me that he “really blew it last time when he caucused with the Republicans and went for Trump”. He then defended himself by saying that Trump had promised to change the government, create a massive infrastructure program in the Midwest, bring back manufacturing jobs, and cut taxes. He said, “I believed the guy and so did a whole bunch of people in the Midwest. Now of course we know he is a fraud and a liar and only cares about billionaires”. He further stated that he and his wife were leaning toward Bernie. She corrected him by saying, “I’m not leaning, I love the guy. I want him because I think he is the only one who can beat you know who”. He then said, “I like Amy, Bernie, and Pete. I don’t know much about Yang, but he seems to be high on education, especially math”. The one last point they discussed was how great it was to be in Iowa when the candidates come. They emphasized  how different it is to see a candidate up close and personal, rather than seeing them in the debates or on television commercials. To that last point they both emphasized that “Bloomberg hasn’t a chance in Iowa or the other early states because he doesn’t respect us and thinks he can buy his way into the White House”.

Andrew’s “stump speech” is compelling. He starts off with the “shrinkage of the manufacturing base, a loss of four million jobs in the U.S. and 40,000 in Iowa”. He then asks, “Why did this happen?” Answers from the crowd of 60 called out,” Walmart”, “greedy owners”, “stock holders”. He then said, all of those things are true, but those forces are like a bulldozer. Amazon is like  “hover craft that just stays and destroys everything, and of course they do not pay a penny in taxes. In fact, few successful businesses or individual pay much in taxes. That is wrong and I will change that”. He then told a short story about a recent shipment of butter from the West Coast to the East Coast “without a single human being involved in the loading, driving or unloading’. He then pointed out that there are three and one half million long distance truck drivers in this county. How long before they become obsolete? He then tied Amazon to the loss of retail stores, thriving business communities, and community identity.

Andrew ended his 20 minute speech with  a passionate argument for his Freedom Dividend, a $1,000 a month to every American 18 year old and older. First he gave the history of the policy, taking it back to Thomas Paine and his “citizens dividend”. He noted Martin Luther King Jr. was a vocal advocate and proponent of the policy, as was Milton Friedman, the conservative economist. Then he emphasized that in the next decade 1 out of 3 Americans will lose their job to new technology. The replacement will not happen quickly enough and families and communities around the country, and especially in the Midwest will be devastated. He asserted that his $1,000 per person per month Freedom Dividend policy would be a “trickle up” stimulus that would help local businesses, organizations, churches, schools, and most of all families. It was helpful to hear a full five minute presentation on his plan, rather than the 30 second sound bite typically hear during the debates. He was very persuasive!

Following his speech,  I approached Andrew and we shook hands. I then told him I was a retired Special Education professor. He grabbed my hand again, shook it warmly, but vigorously and said, “Thank you, thank you for what you do. It means so much to me and my family”. We then took a “selfie” together. Suddenly, his staff member grabbed him to escort him to a group of men and women with cameras and microphones. He then commenced with an interview for the media.

My Take

Andrew Yang is so much more dynamic and articulate than the candidate I had seen on the national debate stage. His “stump speech” is really quite informative and provocative. He uses unique stories of the lives of regular people and integrates just enough facts to keep his speech interesting. He asks the crowd lots of questions, and gets audience involvement. His main point is the impending “4^th Industrial Revolution” that will usher in the new era of a technology driven economy. Equally important, he is focused on the grotesque income and taxation inequality that has become commonplace in the U.S. He has lots of ideas, including term limits, taxing wealthy individuals and corporations, and his $ 1,000 Freedom Dividend.

The ground game is key in the Iowa caucuses-Sanders and Warren

On Wednesday I visited seven of the campaign offices in Iowa City to gauge how each of the candidates had organized their ground game. Iowa City and Johnson County are very liberal by Iowa standards. Obama won handily against Hillary Clinton in 2008 and Bernie Sanders likewise won by 20 points in 2016. Thus the convention wisdom is that Sanders and Warren are the best bets to win, unless the liberal vote is split and Biden or another moderate manages a slim victory.

By all accounts, turnout in Johnson County and the state of Iowa could approach the levels seen in the historic Obama vs. Clinton race in 2008. That year a record 239,000 Democrats statewide participated in the caucus. Obama won with 38% of the vote in a three way race with Hillary Clinton and John Edwards. Obama’s victory was achieved with first time and young voters (under 30). By all accounts, Bernie sits in the “cat bird sear” in Iowa City and to a lesser extent Johnson County. He won the Johnson County 2016 caucus against Hillary Clinton by 60% to 40% on the strength of his support from young people in Iowa City. His campaign was also fueled by new voters. This pattern of success appears to be repeating in 2020. His showing in the Iowa poll on January 10 had him with 36% of the 18-35 age group. If the pollster had looked at the youngest end of the age continuum, say the 18-25 year old group, I imagine the results would be much higher. In some ways, 2020 has more competition for the young vote. Andrew Yang receives his highest level of support from the youngest voters. Elizabeth Warren is second to Bernie, with 1 in 5 of the youngest voters in the Iowa poll. Mayor Pete sits between Yang and Warren.

When I asked several of the campaign staff about the “student vote”, meaning the precincts near the University of Iowa with majority student population, the consensus position was that Bernie is the clear leader, will do well, but not as well as in 2016. The Warren, Mayor Pete, and Yang campaigns also noted that they were doing well in the “student” precincts. The outcome of this battle for young and new voters will be the one to watch closely on caucus night.

The campaigns are all gearing up for record turnout. In addition, they are concerned that many voters are still weighing several top candidates. While the polls show a tight race at the top, there are still 40% or so of likely Iowa caucus goers that may change their minds before the actual event occurs on the evening of February 3.

It is widely believed that a campaign’s “ground game” is crucial to its success in the caucus. Those campaigns that are the most organized are able to identify their voters, make constant contact with them during the run-up to the caucus, get their voters to the caucus,  and finally  to have trained a cadre of “precinct or caucus leaders” to manage the complex rules associated with the caucus process during the event. To that end, I attempted to judge the level of organization of the various campaigns, based on my observation of campaign office activities and interviews with campaign staff and volunteers.

In this blog post I will break it up into two sections. The first section will focus on Sanders and Warren. The second post on Biden, Pete, and Amy.

Sanders Campaign

When I visited the Sanders campaign office I never got beyond the front desk. I spoke to two staff members who exuded supreme confidence in the overall campaign organization. One of the staff had been involved in 2016 in Iowa City and said, “we are far more organized compared to 2016”. The Sanders campaign has been in place for several months in Iowa City, They have done their work identifying their core voters. They have had teams of volunteers out knocking on doors for the past several weeks. Furthermore, the staff pointed out the support from AOC and the high degree of enthusiasm on the part of their voters. Finally, one of the staff noted that they had already trained 70 precinct captains who would be on site in the caucuses to persuade, cajole and organize the Sanders voters. The Sanders campaign is a formidable operation!

The bottom line is that Sanders appears to have a superb organization, lots of paid staff, hundreds of local and out of town volunteers, and history on their side. I can’t wait to see how many people they turnout for the caucus.

Warren Campaign

When I arrived at the Warren campaign I was greeted with an enthusiastic welcome from eight  young staffers and volunteers who were all sitting around a group of small tables organizing the phone bank and canvas activities. They were having the best time! The large room they were occupying was filled with posters, pictures of Elizabeth Warren, popular sayings, maps of Iowa, charts and lists of current and planned activities, and a variety of lawn signs. I told them I was from Oregon, my 91 year old mother was a fanatic Elizabeth Warren supporter, and I wanted to see how their campaign was going. They all cheered and joyously scurried to get her some wall signs, button, stickers, an Elizabeth Warren hand held fan, and a bumper sticker. When I asked for a lawn sign for Liesl and Lauren, one of the volunteers said he walked by their house all of the time, mentioning the University of Oregon and University of Iowa flags on the front porch.

The group of volunteers and staffers were all business. One student volunteer asked me if I wanted to phone bank. When I said I would do so in honor of my mother and daughters, they all cheered. The Warren campaign believes they have a distinct advantage with both the U of Iowa students and general community members. They are focused on getting out the vote and predicted that the turnout would be enormous. They are convinced that Elizabeth Warren is the best candidate to deliver “big structural change” in the areas of income inequality and climate change. This operation appeared to be a mature organization that had done their homework of identifying their voters over the past seven months, and was now in a position to harvest the fruits of their effort on caucus night. This campaign was truly impressive and will definitely give Warren a chance to be successful come February 3.

My Take

Based on my observation and conversations with the Sanders and Warren campaign, I think Bernie will narrowly prevail in Johnson County if he is able to turnout students, young people, and new voters. The recent poll data and his results in the 2016 caucus support this assessment. Whether he has similar strength with the 35-90 year age group remains to be seen. Elizabeth Warren’s support seems to be more consistent across the age groups. If her campaign is as organized throughout Iowa as she is in Iowa City, she has a good chance to be in the top three coming out of Iowa.

The ground game: Biden, Pete, an Amy

Biden campaign

The Biden campaign was bustling with energy when I arrived. I asked to spend a couple of minutes with a staff member and spoke with a young man who had recently arrived from San Francisco (he was a Minnesota native). He walked me through the “nuts and bolts” of the Biden operation. Biden’s office is staffed with eight or so paid staff, a couple of whom had previously worked on the local Kamala Harris campaign. The staff were highly organized and had specific responsibilities for voter identification activities and  “Get out the vote” efforts.

The main effort I observed when I was in the office was organizing for the daily canvas activity. Both paid staff and volunteers walk the various precincts daily from 10 AM to 5PM, Monday through Friday. When asked about the weather as a potential hindrance the young staffer said, “we go out every day snow doesn’t bother us”. He admitted that a recent ice storm did cause them to curtail one of the morning efforts. True to form, the various teams of canvassers left the office at 9:45 in a light snow. The forecast was for snow throughout the day, but that didn’t hinder them one bit.

The Biden campaign was excited about Jill Biden’s presence in Iowa on Wednesday the 22nd and Joe Biden’s rally next Monday in Iowa City. The campaign emphasized Biden’s ties to Obama and his wealth of experience in both domestic and foreign policy. The campaign is doing all of the things it needs to do to be highly successful on caucus night. While they are emphasizing the 16 “non-student” precincts in Iowa City, and hitting the rural areas of Johnson County, they believe their superior organization will bring out the voters who are passionate about Biden and want the best person who can beat Trump.

Pete’s campaign

Mayor Pete’s campaign was still in the afterglow of having the candidate in the area for the past several days. When I arrived at their location in the middle of the campus area, I introduced myself and told them I had just returned from meeting Pete in Mt. Pleasant and Muscatine. A group of four staffers crowded around me asking for details from the two events.

I pretty much reiterated the impressions I shared on the recent blog entry. When I finished they excitedly talked about the event I missed on Wednesday, the rally in Cedar Rapids. Pete had 1.200 people show up in that rally. A large contingent of supporters from Iowa City also attended. They were especially excited about the number of people who have signed up to help Pete during the run-up to the caucus.

For the next 30 minutes, I had a conversation about Pete, Chastain, and the unbelievable charisma and high minded purpose of Pete’ campaign. When the subject changed to the grassroots effort, they all emphasized that Pete is doing very well with the student population and has strong support from the over 55 year age group. They organizing training for precinct leaders and are running phone banks and canvas efforts from 10-6 every day. Judging from the bustle of activity in their centrally located office, I imagine Pete will do well in Iowa City and Johnson County on caucus day.

Amy’s Campaign

Amy’s campaign office is located in a small cluster of offices which also houses the Andrew Yang and Tom Steyer campaigns. Amy’s office is plastered with all things Amy, much like Elizabeth Warren’s office. The enthusiastic young Field Organizer, could barely contain her enthusiasm for the momentum Amy has created after the past two debates, the endorsement (with Elizabeth Warren) by the New York Times, and the endorsement by the local Quad-City newspaper. She repeatedly noted that they had gotten a late start compared to the other campaigns, but now had the momentum and were doing everything they could do to capitalize on their recent good fortune.

Another main point the staff member emphasized is the large number of caucus goers who have reported that they are open to changing their commitment prior to or during the caucus. The campaign believes that the late breaking voters are strongly going to Amy. I then told her about Val’s late switch to Amy and my sister Melanie’s recent decision to support Amy, especially after the recent debates. The staffer then noted that aside from the most committed Sanders supporters, many voters are open considering Amy, who is the second choice of many of the voters they have contacted during their identification process. This process of persuasion is the top focus of their campaign efforts heading into the final days of the campaign. They are placing many of their staff and volunteer resources into persuading the many “second choice for Amy” voters to caucus for her. It seems like a long shot, but they believe momentum is on their side.

My Take

The Biden campaign is in very good shape if Sanders and Warren split the liberal vote. If Biden’s experienced campaign organization gets his voters out for the caucuses he could win the state. Pete has never performed on such a large stage, and his operation has never been tested. His supporters are passionate and strongly committed. I cannot predict how well his campaign will perform during these final days leading up to the caucus.  Amy is playing catch up, has momentum on her side, but needs a dramatic event to overcome the more organized and experienced campaigns.